The Hazard Level serves as a decision support metric used by the North Carolina Forest Service (NCFS) to assist district foresters in determining Daily Readiness Plans, including appropriate staffing levels. Fire hazard is one of several factors considered when establishing daily operational readiness.

FireFamilyPlus software was used to develop fire business thresholds for each Fire Danger Rating Area (FDRA). These thresholds are derived from statistical analyses of historical fire occurrence and associated weather conditions within each FDRA, and are used specifically to determine the hazard/staffing component of the Daily Readiness Plan.

The daily Hazard Level (from 1 to 5) is based on the Energy Release Component (ERC-Z) in combination with either the Burning Index (BI-Z) or Ignition Component (IC-Z). These values are calculated as the average across available "SIG" stations located within each FDRA.

During the active growing season, these outputs are further refined through the incorporation of seasonal greening using modeled herbaceous live fuel moisture (HFM) values generated in FEMS. Daily ratings may be adjusted downward during periods of active "green" conditions as live fuels become less receptive to ignition and sustained fire spread. Current step-down thresholds are 160% and 190% HFM for a one and two category decrease, respectively. This step-down process is subject to change as FEMS development continues.

As with any modeled product applied across a broad landscape, localized conditions vary and may not always be fully represented in the output. Final daily forecasts may also be manually adjusted to better reflect observed and expected conditions within individual FDRAs.

When a district or federal ownership unit spans multiple FDRAs with differing Hazard/Staffing Levels, it is recommended that the highest Hazard Level be used when determining the Daily Readiness Plan.