Fire Danger Digest
North Carolina’s official source for fire danger forecasts
Hosted by NC State Climate Office, Supported by NC Forest Service
This tool supplements our public-facing fire danger map by providing a more detailed view of recent and forecasted fire danger conditions.

These ratings are based on the Energy Release Component -- a measure of potential fire intensity based on accumulated dryness within forest fuels -- as calculated for local weather stations across the state's Fire Danger Rating Areas. This rating matrix is based on Fuel Model Z, which includes 1-hour, 10-hour, 100-hour, and 1000-hour dead fuel classes.

During the active growing season, these outputs are further refined by incorporating seasonal greening using modeled herbaceous live fuel moisture values generated in FEMS. Daily ratings may be adjusted downward during periods of active "green" conditions, as live fuels become less receptive to ignition and sustained fire spread.

As with any modeled product applied across a broad landscape, localized conditions can vary and may not always be fully represented in the output. Final daily forecasts may also be manually adjusted to better reflect observed and expected conditions within individual FDRAs.

Hover over the legend below for an interpretation of each Adjective Rating category:
Low
Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands, although a more intense heat source, such as lightning, may start fires in duff or punky wood.
Moderate
Fires can start from most accidental causes, but with the exception of lightning fires in some areas, the number of fire starts is generally low.
High
All fine, dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended brush and campfires are likely to escape.
Very High
Fires start easily from all causes and immediately after ignition, spread rapidly, increasing quickly in intensity. Spot fires are a constant danger.
Extreme
Fires start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious.
Recent Data
Calculated from hourly estimates
Forecast Data
Calculated using hourly forecasts
FDRA
THU
OCT 8
FRI
OCT 9
SAT
OCT 10
SUN
OCT 11
MON
OCT 12
TUE
OCT 13
WED
OCT 14
THU
OCT 15
FRI
OCT 16
SAT
OCT 17
SUN
OCT 18
MON
OCT 19
TUE
OCT 20
WED
OCT 21
Southern Highlands
L
L
L
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Central Mountains
L
L
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Northern Highlands
L
L
L
L
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Blue Ridge
L
L
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Western Piedmont
M
M
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Sandhills
M
M
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Eastern Piedmont
M
M
L
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Southern Coast
M
M
L
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Northern Coast
M
M
L
L
L
M
M
L
M
M
M
M
L
M